It is very much not like me to share a positive perspective about higher education writ large in this space. After all, I’m the guy who, in August 2023, wrote (of higher education), “It’s Over: Higher Ed in the Rearview Mirror,” in which I declared that whatever beliefs people had about higher ed being places where individuals can make themselves better through education—across dimensions other than future employability—was an artifact of the past.
But I’m going to break type this week and work through what I see as possible signs of hope. If what we may have once thought about higher education is in the rearview mirror, maybe, just maybe, there’s something visible on the horizon through the front windshield that should give us a sense of future possibility.
The first bit of good news is that according to research conducted by the College Board, once student aid and inflation are factored into the equation, tuition at public two- and four-year institutions is more affordable this year than last.
In fact, this is a trend that’s been ongoing since 2020. The study is indexed to the cost of college in 1994–95, so in 2024–25, the study found, tuition and fees for four-year public colleges are about twice what they were (again, indexed to inflation) 30 years ago.
This isn’t great, but it puts today’s costs roughly on par with 2009–10. In essence we’ve reset to the costs in place when people first started questioning the value of a college education. Not great, but undeniable progress.
More good news comes in the form of an opinion essay by Kevin Carey and Sophie Nguyen of New America, which argues that higher education is not nearly as unpopular and mistrusted as we have been led to believe.
Their argument is based in several observations:
- People have lost faith in just about every institution, rather than higher education being unique in its position. In fact, while only 36 percent of Americans say they have high confidence in higher education, this still ranks well above other institutions such as the medical system, organized religion, public schools and television news.
- Negative feelings about education have become attached to general political polarization, rather than outright negative experiences with higher education. In fact, most people still say that they think the higher education institutions they intersect with do a good job.
- People still see a role for government to make education affordable, suggesting they don’t want to see a broken institution abandoned so much as a troubled institution given fresh life.
As the authors say, people don’t necessarily want to give up on higher ed; they just want it to be better.
Given that cost is the chief complaint about higher ed and the most significant barrier to enrollment, the fact that costs—while still high—have declined from their peak is good news indeed.
This good news is perhaps tempered by the fact that enrollment of first-year students declined by more than 5 percent year to year. The decline was most pronounced at four-year public institutions, which saw an 8.5 percent drop in first-year students.
Liam Knox of Inside Higher Ed compiled some possible explanations for the drop, one of which is that the disaster of the new FAFSA rollout discouraged some potential students from even making an attempt at applying and enrolling. Given that community college enrollment growth was up, significantly aided by an increase in dual-enrollment students who would not need to go through the FAFSA process, this theory may hold some water.
In my view, what higher ed should take from this data is a desire for institutions to fulfill their core missions, to make themselves accessible to the people who want what they have to offer: an education.
The consumer/transaction model of higher education is well exhausted. Prices had to come down because they couldn’t get any higher. Institutions cannot cut their way to prosperity or drink a consultant elixir that turns a college into some kind of magical entity miraculously girded for the unique challenges of the 21st century.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but that’s all bullshit. People want educations. They need credentials that mean something. They’re willing to pay a reasonable price for that, but if those criteria are not met, they’ll do something else.
This requires sustainable thinking and a focus on core values. I’m not saying this is easy to execute, but it’s not really all that complicated in terms of the underlying vision and values.
The public is telling us what they want from higher ed. Let’s do that as best we can, and should we have success, more support and resources will come, and maybe, just maybe, there’s a decent future ahead.