The AAPL earnings call for Q4 2024 has been scheduled for October 31, and will give our first official hint about early iPhone 16 sales.
The fiscal quarter covers July to September. Pre-orders for the new iPhone models opened on September 13, with the phones available in Apple Stores from September 20, so launch orders will be included in the iPhone revenue …
However, Apple doesn’t reveal unit sales, and doesn’t break out the pre-launch from post-launch revenue, so we’ll only get a broad sense of the popularity of the latest models.
Apple long since stopped giving specific guidance on the upcoming quarter, but the company did map out its broad expectations during the previous earnings call.
We expect our September quarter total company revenue to grow year-over-year at a rate similar to the June quarter.
That rate was 4.87%, which would be roughly flat year-on-year, suggesting that Apple is expecting a solid but unspectacular contribution from the iPhone 16. This contrasts with the super-cycle many had expected as owners of older models upgrade to take advantage of the new Apple Intelligence features, as the two iPhone 15 Pro models are the only existing iPhones able to run AI.
However, CFO Luca Maestri did caution that year-on-year comparisons are complicated by the varying contributions made by different products.
Keep in mind on the Mac that we will have a challenging compare from a year ago, given the fact that we launched and we had the full quarter impact of the launch of the MacBook Air 15-inch a year ago. And also on the iPad, we reported 24% growth in the June quarter. Clearly, we had the benefit from the launch in the June quarter of the new products, the iPad Air and the iPad Pro. So important to keep that in mind on a sequential basis.
Unsurprisingly, Apple expects its consistent Services growth to continue.
We expect Services revenue to grow double digits at a rate similar to what we reported in the first 3 quarters of this fiscal year.
The company doesn’t expect that revenue to be dramatically affected by DMA compliance in the EU.
We’ll of course be bringing you all the numbers and commentary on the day.
Photo: Apple
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